I have been dealing with this Covid-19 virus since I flew from London to Hong Kong on February 1st this year. From this moment onward all started falling apart to an extend I also did not anticipate. As I have six weeks headstart with this virus compared with the Western world, let me sum up what I learned so far.
Science matters. Exponential growth is what it is. And Covid-19 is a virus, not a ghost. Especially in the early days of infections in Hong Kong, it was not clear what we were up against. This gave room to a lot of speculation, rumours, conspiracy theories and tales. I am not on social media, so most of it I have not even seen. But I heard some of the sprays. I was very impressed when a Finnish company at the end of February told me that they ran the numbers and decided not to have visitors on their production campus until the end of June. Actually, why can a telecom equipment manufacturer do that, while the WHO was meandering around confusing people? My first source of information was actually the WHO at the beginning. Next time, I know better. I will ask Nokia.
Study statistics and stop blaming. After the virus broke out in Wuhan, people mistrusted the reported numbers. Yes, you always have to distrust numbers. Especially when you can't test, have reporting inaccuracies, time lags, cross dependencies in underlying conditions etc. Measuring is hard. It's not that the Chinese can't count. Trust me, they can count far better than most others. You need assumptions and standards which have to be developed on the job. That includes errors and inconsistencies naturally.
Stop using the terms "Human rights" and "Freedom" as a deterrent. And it's not "Chinese dictatorship" to confine people at home and limit travel when there is a disease outbreak. Quarantine is a proven method to stop a disease from spreading. Real "dictators" actually don't care about quarantine. They only care about themselves. Of course, we have to defend personal rights and freedom as much as it is possible. But liberty ends where the freedom of others is reduced significantly. Yes, you have the freedom to lick the toilet bowl. But then stay at home, don't infect others and don't turn up blocking hospital spaces.
Staying healthy is a civil duty. Don't get me wrong. I don't mean to say that "the world needs you, so we want you to be healthy". Let me get this straight: the world does not need you, and it does not care. What I do mean is that your lifestyle choices should not result in clogging up emergency capacity. For example, in the case of Covid-19-SARS2, it is evident from Chinese and Italian data that for example, smokers are eight times more likely to end up on a ventilator in an emergency room and they have significantly higher mortality. Can anybody explain why there are still people smoking and tobacco companies are still allowed selling while at the same time, the world is scrambling to produce enough ICU ventilators? The same applies to other lifestyle choices. For example, obesity does does not just rhyme on stupidity. Perhaps for those who need this, a campaign like “Fasting for victory” will help.
It is worth the economic impact. The whole discussion, whether it's worth tanking the US economy to "save 2.5 % of the population, which is anyway unproductive" is more than cynical. It would be genocide. Just do the math, if you can: with 330 million Americans that are more than 8 million dead. Just as a comparison, the US lost around 0.5 million in World War II. So, when Trump sees himself like a "Wartime President", it may be that he means he is at war with his own people. That's new for America. They usually are at war with others to distract from their own problems. Boris Johnson at least still infected himself, bragging that he was shaking hands with Covid-19 patients just a while ago. He also wanted a steep gamble on the lives by inducing herd immunity. I thought "mad cow disease" was overcome. Perhaps Boris had a steak too much back then. Wishing him good health.
The world is not on holiday. Things work relatively smoothly and structures are still there. It’s not only the supermarket cashier, nurse, bus driver, train conductor, policeman which are all still working to keep things running. It’s also millions who take things back home and into their own (disinfected) hands. I find the sense of community and level of cooperation at this time really amazing. This will also change the way we work and lead in the future, I am sure. Of course, there are also a few who may have trouble getting out of the bed, getting dressed and hang in their loungewear all day checking the “Life updates” online “informing themselves”. But they would have been lazy in the office also. There it’s just easier to look busy. Just call a meeting or do a workshop.
The only thing, I am personally missing are the museums, concerts and libraries. Even travelling I don’t miss much, having gone through quite a bit of travel chaos recently. I was never really fond of eating out, as I prefer cooking myself. Shopping I despise and I enjoy the cities empty. I also like that manners matter again, people keep their distance and are more kind and tolerant. The virus does not distinguish between race and social status. I know many want to go “back to normal” as soon as possible. I don’t want. It should not be called “social distancing” anyway, because it is just doing the opposite. Real social distancing is what we had before.
Face masks back then, pleague time (Source: Public Domain)