On December 2nd and 3rd 1989 Michael Gorbatchev and George H.W. Bush met on the Soviet ship TS Maksim Gorkiy south of Malta, mooring in the Bay of Marsaxlokk. The sea was choppy, which brought the meeting the name “Seasickness Summit”. It is often described as one of the most important summits since the Yalta Conference in 1945, …
Like I was taken by surprise by the falling of The Wall on November 9th in 1989, I am now shocked how fast the curtain is dropping again. I understand the logic and sequence of events, as much as you can follow it in times when war propaganda, Poker and Brinkmanship games have taken over. Now is the 27th of February 2022, a European country is “specially operated to be demilitarised”, and the world is held at gunpoint. All this escalated in less than a fortnight. Yes, the Minsk agreement has not been implemented and war in Eastern Ukraine has been watched (and ignored) by the world for 8 years. Yes, a potential NATO expansion into Ukraine makes it far more of a hiding place for short and medium-range rockets than the Baltics. Yes, American diplomacy can be alien and can be perceived as arrogant. Yes, the main Russian concerns have been ignored in the last minute diplomacy before the “special military operation” in Ukraine. But this shall serve as an explanation for what? For invading a sovereign state? For throwing back the world more than three decades in history? Or even 60 years into a Cuban Missile Crisis scenario? Or even dropping it into the end of history, with new weapon categories? Yes, as in the old Sting piece, “the Russians love their children too”. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, civilians are getting armed. With all respect to the individuals engaging in this, but especially in an urban warfare scenario, this is just a strategy to get more people slaughtered on all sides. Distributing 25 000 AK47 (Kalashnikov) to everybody who claims to defend Ukraine? I would consider it quite dangerous. How does this actually work? I mean, if I need an AK 47 next time to rob a bank, I know where to get it. And now, among others, German-made bazookas (Panzerfaust) and Stinger SAMs are added to that. Isn’t that a little dangerous? I am just asking. Isn’t this arming a partisan war? If yes, is this not a mistake that has been done before multiple times?
President Lukashenko of Belarus is now inviting for peace talks or at least ceasefire negotiations in a location close to Chernobyl. This sounds like a setting for a James Bond movie. I do wish him and the delegations all the best of success for all of us, and especially for people now suffering in Ukraine. And I do hope nobody has a nervous trigger finger. I even feel in the old times, there may have been more communication channels to avoid tactical misunderstanding. Instead, channels are deliberately shut. This worries me.
For Russia falling back on China as a strategic partner: is “system Putin” really so sure, that China will throw an economic lifeline to come to the rescue? Even not talking about the level of Central Government, if I remember correctly from my 12 years of living and working in China, financial institutions will watch their diminishing ROI in Russian investments carefully, and turn their back on it when necessary. And then, what about the long common border between China and Russia’s East? Crossing the Amur/黑龙江 Hēilóng Jiāng river, there are large numbers of Chinese migrating into Russia, which develops the area economically, but also brings risks of community imbalances. I have been there and seen it on the ground. And what happens to the “New Chinese Silk Road”, when a new Iron Curtain comes down? And the Russian elites themselves, being stuck, having assets frozen, having their companies blacklisted? They will not be happy. The Russian middle class, whose savings diminished, will soon have to decide between a holiday in Turkey or a new winter jacket? The same ones who are dreaming of a better life for their kids in a free society. Will they think, this is worth it? And the Russians who get desperate Telegram messages from friends and family in Kyiv and Odesa? Or those who receive the letter, that their son died for a “greater good”? The list can go on and everybody is just losing. Potentially even the people of Eastern Ukraine.
On the other hand, I have to apologize if I missed that Ukraine recently became a shining lighthouse of democracy and human rights. My personal impression was that it would be still a long way, just to handle corruption (somewhere in the category “worse than Romania”). I also encountered Ukrainian professional rioters in Hong Kong in 2019, just flown in to train and brutalize protestors. They used as a personal credential that they were there at the Maidan square in 2014. They were just dangerous assholes, armed with Gerber LMFIIs. But there is another thing, which I failed to realize about Ukraine: Nazis. Sure, there must be some. We have them in Germany too, unfortunately. But most Ukrainians, I know are lovely, friendly and peace-loving people. Like the Russians.
In the end, I guess, we have been all lied to and now just propaganda rages on all sides. Just one, for a change, did very accurate predictions: the US intelligence agencies. Not that I would be a fan, but they were giving fairly accurate predictions, of what is about to happen. New leadership? There is a lot of black humour emerging. I like black humour. But it stops being funny when it meets the current realities.
